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The Transparent MSTR Tracker

The premium is the most incorrectly calculated part of analyzing MicroStrategy.
Who am I? I'm not particularly interesting - I have a background in finance, and I had a little extra time before starting business school in the fall.
I've loved following the Microstrategy story and like other investors I've struggled to get comfortable with the premium.
No other premium tracker provides the build to calculating their "premiums". In producing this build on my own, there are a number of items that I've noticed that I can guarantee are not properly accounted for in other trackers.

The fully-diluted share count ("FDSO") is a dynamic function of the share price. At different share prices, different tranches of options and convertible debt are dilutive and their impact to the market cap are meaningful.
- Based on looking at the breakpoints for additional dilutive shares, it is clear that other trackers are not accounting for the change in FDSO at their own respective points in time.
- This tracker only looks back at the premium as of the 12/31/23 earnings report in order to limit the amount of work necessary to properly adjust FDSO for the specific trading day.
- With this build I can eventually add functionality that will show the dilutive impact of the convertible breakpoints at various BTC prices.
Valuing the Microstrategy software business ("MSTR Opco") based on a stale, standalone market value is simply wrong. The only way to properly value the software business is to identify a revenue multiple that is in-line with other low-growth, low-profitability peers. There are plenty of private equity buyers who would happily acquire the software asset at values grossly higher than the ~$1B that's being floated on other trackers.
Other trackers do not properly account for the true cash proceeds of the convertible debt issuances, as well as the impact of the usage of excess balance sheet cash to acquire additional BTC.